Solid positive growth for global trade expected within three months
Prospects for Korean and US trade brightening, Germany moderating
Air trade outlook drops slightly, ocean trade gaining momentum
The positive outlook for world trade has continued to improve. The DHL Global Trade Barometer increased to 66 points in March from 64 points in January when the newly created index was initially published. With an index value clearly above 50, the DHL Global Trade Barometer continues to signal solid positive growth for global trade within the next three months. Furthermore, the increase indicates that growth is gaining momentum.
The overall good prospects are also reflected in the fact that the Trade Barometer points to an increase in trade activity for each of the seven constituent countries. Compared to the findings in January, the improved global index is mainly driven by an increasingly positive outlook for Korean and US trade. In contrast, the prospects for German trade eased after the strong peak seen in 2017. India continues to show the highest index value of all seven countries for the overall trade predictions, while the UK, after a modest decline since January, scores the same level as China at the lower end of the country ranking.
Developments in air and ocean trade are slightly contrasting. The global air trade outlook drops slightly by -1 point compared to January, but remains very positive at 70. The outlook for global air trade is pushed downward, as particularly German and South Korean air trade growth is expected to slow down. On the upside, air trade growth in China and the US is expected to accelerate.
Meanwhile, the outlook for global ocean trade improved to 63 points in March from 60 points in January. This growth is also driven by the US and China, together with a strong increase in South Korea, offsetting a slightly reduced growth outlook for UK and German ocean trade.
Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is a new and unique early indicator for the current state and future development of global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world’s leading logistics company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a year. The next release date is June 27, 2018.