Donald Trump’s latest outburst on Truth Social about Afghanistan and Bagram Air Base deserves to be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism. His claim that “bad things will happen” if the Taliban does not hand the base back to the United States is bluster without substance. Trump has built his political persona on sounding tough while avoiding the very measures that would actually give weight to his words. He is famously opposed to keeping American troops abroad for extended deployments, and any talk of “boots on the ground” contradicts both his own past rhetoric and the core sentiment of his base, who have little appetite for renewed wars in distant lands.
The idea of sanctions or tariffs is equally hollow. Afghanistan under the Taliban is not an export-driven economy that fears being cut off from Western markets. It is a secluded, largely informal, and subsistence-based system where pressure from Washington carries little weight. There are no major Afghan corporations listed on Wall Street, no integrated banking systems plugged into global finance, and certainly no leverage that could make Kabul bend to Trump’s will. Even during America’s longest war, when Washington had 100,000 troops on the ground, the Taliban endured every sanction and embargo imposed. They survived the Soviet invasion in the 1980s, then two decades of U.S. occupation, only to emerge still in power when both great powers retreated in frustration.
So what tools are left in Trump’s toolbox? Threats of military action ring hollow when the man making them opposes the very commitments such action would require. Economic pressure is meaningless against a primitive economy with no reliance on U.S. markets. Diplomatic pressure requires allies, yet Trump’s habit of insulting Canada, Mexico, Europe, and practically every other partner leaves him with few willing to line up behind his crusade. The Taliban knows all of this. They understand Washington’s limited leverage better than most American voters do. And that is why Trump’s threat is not a genuine policy option but a familiar performance—loud, menacing, but ultimately empty.
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