Donald Trump called a proposed arms package for Taiwan a “very good negotiating chip.” That phrase tells Beijing more about his approach to the island than any carefully worded statement about peace in the Taiwan Strait. In October, Trump was holding back approval of the roughly $14 billion package to preserve a fragile trade truce with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump had already approved an $11 billion package in December, so his record includes substantial support for Taiwan. But a weapons sale can strengthen Taiwan’s defenses only once the equipment is delivered and its forces can use it. In the meantime, the delay teaches Beijing something about what it can get from Washington by applying pressure.
Xi gave his side of the story on November 12. Speaking in Beijing on the 160th anniversary of Sun Yat-sen’s birth, he described unification as a historic mission of the Communist Party and spoke as though Taiwan’s future had already been decided. He reiterated his preference for a peaceful outcome. Beijing still reserves the option of using force, and its military operates around Taiwan regularly. Taiwan’s elected president, Lai Ching-te, maintains that the island’s people have the right to decide their own future. Xi’s insistence that history has settled the matter leaves little room for the people who actually live there.
The danger in Trump’s approach is that it adds a new kind of uncertainty. For decades, Beijing has had to weigh the possibility that the United States would intervene if China attacked Taiwan. Washington can keep its military response uncertain while making its peacetime support dependable. Holding up an arms sale for the sake of a trade truce muddies that distinction. If Xi concludes that economic pressure can slow American support in peacetime, he may start to believe it could also buy hesitation in a crisis. A blockade could put that belief to the test well before Beijing decides whether to attempt an invasion. By then, Washington would be making decisions under pressure that it could have made calmly months earlier.
Trump has every reason to keep talking to Xi. Before the two meet in Shenzhen, he can take the arms package off the bargaining table, move forward with approval, and give Taipei a clear delivery schedule. The value of doing that now is that Xi would have to reckon with a decision already made. A Chinese invasion would still be a choice made in Beijing. Trump’s responsibility is to make sure Xi weighs that choice without counting on an American president who can be talked into looking the other way.