The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes on Iran, has given Beijing a dense set of strategic lessons — military, geopolitical, and doctrinal. Here is what the analytical literature suggests Beijing is absorbing. The US as a live training target. The most concrete takeaway is intelligence. Beijing is treating the … [Read more...] about What did Beijing learn from the recent Iran conflict?
Ceasefire as Cover: Markets, Munitions, and the Illusion of Strategy
The ceasefire narrative coming out of Washington has all the surface traits of improvisation—contradictory promises, oversized rhetoric, a kind of theatrical overreach that feels detached from the operational reality on the ground, bordering at times on outright buffonade and political clownship. But reducing it to mere incompetence misses what is actually happening underneath. … [Read more...] about Ceasefire as Cover: Markets, Munitions, and the Illusion of Strategy
Shock and Collapse: Why a U.S. Strike on Iran’s Infrastructure Could Break the Regime
The most likely path forward is no longer diplomatic maneuvering or incremental escalation. It is a decisive U.S. strike designed to disable Iran’s critical infrastructure—refineries, power stations, telecommunications networks, airports, and desalination systems—in a coordinated, high-intensity campaign. The objective would not be symbolic punishment. It would be systemic … [Read more...] about Shock and Collapse: Why a U.S. Strike on Iran’s Infrastructure Could Break the Regime
Iran’s Existential Choice: State or Cause?
Henry Kissinger once posed the question that defines Iran's current crisis better than any diplomatic cable or intelligence assessment: Is Iran a state or a cause? A state operates within the international system, trades sovereignty for security guarantees, and subordinates ideology to survival. A cause does the opposite — it instrumentalizes the state, bleeds it if necessary, … [Read more...] about Iran’s Existential Choice: State or Cause?
If You Wanna Shoot, Shoot — America’s Moment of Decision
“If you wanna shoot, shoot, don’t talk.” Strip away the slogans and that’s exactly where the United States finds itself. When Donald Trump delivers a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, this isn’t diplomacy under pressure — it’s the final stage after diplomacy has already failed. For decades, Washington has tried the full spectrum: sanctions, backchannel … [Read more...] about If You Wanna Shoot, Shoot — America’s Moment of Decision