Watch what states do when pressure peaks, not what they say when things are calm. Qatar is taking hits—from Iran, no less—and yet it’s leaning on Washington to halt operations that are degrading the very regime threatening it. That isn’t just “mediation.” That’s a choice. And it reveals something uncomfortable about how parts of the region prioritize threats. The default … [Read more...] about Qatar’s Real Alignment Isn’t Neutrality—It’s Ideological Convenience
The IRGC’s Survival Trap
Something has shifted in a way that feels almost irreversible. Not in the loud, cinematic sense of a single decisive strike or a dramatic turning point, but in the quieter, more structural way that power systems lose their internal logic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is no longer operating from a position of calculated deterrence. It is operating from a position of … [Read more...] about The IRGC’s Survival Trap
The Oil Crises of the 1970s: A Painful Wake-Up Call We Dare Not Forget
In the autumn of 1973, Americans stood in lines that snaked for blocks around gas stations, engines idling, tempers fraying, as the fuel gauge hovered near empty. Odd-even rationing days, “Sorry, No Gas” signs, and a national speed limit slashed to 55 mph became symbols of a new reality. The Arab oil embargo—triggered when OPEC’s Arab members retaliated against U.S. support for … [Read more...] about The Oil Crises of the 1970s: A Painful Wake-Up Call We Dare Not Forget
Not Our Strait? Trump and the Case for Letting Hormuz Go
Every few years, Washington rediscovers the Strait of Hormuz—usually when tensions spike, tankers get harassed, or oil prices twitch. The script is familiar: send ships, issue warnings, reaffirm that the United States will keep the artery open for global trade. But what if that script is exactly what Donald Trump would tear up? Strip away the outrage for a second and look at … [Read more...] about Not Our Strait? Trump and the Case for Letting Hormuz Go
China’s Interest in the Strait of Hormuz
For China, the Strait of Hormuz is not a distant geopolitical issue. It is a structural vulnerability built into the country’s energy system. As the world’s largest importer of crude oil, China depends heavily on energy supplies originating in the Persian Gulf. A large share of those shipments must pass through the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz before continuing across … [Read more...] about China’s Interest in the Strait of Hormuz